With the continued fall in oil prices many economists’ forecasts have been revised. ITR economics expects oil prices to soften through the third quarter of 2015, reaching a low of around $51 a barrel. NAW expects the US economy to expand in 2015, but a slow pace.
Wholesaler-distributors stand to benefit from lower oil prices. Lower oil prices help with winter energy cost boosting discretionary income for both businesses and consumers. The economic outlook is positive for the next three years, and the US economy is expected to expand supporting growth in the wholesale trade.
Economic Indicators for the Wholesale/Distribution Industry:
- Retail sales are expected to grow at a slower pace through the third quarter but still will close the year 2.7% above 2015. Expect an accelerating trend to form in late 2015 through early 2016.
- US industrial production trends are suggesting a decelerated rate of rise in 2015.
- New orders are expected to rise through 2016, but the pace slowing mildly in early 2015 through year end.
- The current 3-month moving average for interest rates is 2.35% is expected to remain the same until late 2015.
For more information on the economic overview, refer to the National Association of Wholesaler-Distributors (NAW) Advisor newsletter.