Dr. Alan Beaulieu, an economist from Institute for Trend Research (ITR) Economics, presented his trusted economic forecast on November 12th, at the 16th annual manufacturing seminar, presented by Barnes Dennig, Huntington Bank and DBL Law. Dr. Beaulieu is a principal, as well as president of ITR. He has provided economic forecasts with 94.7% accuracy which enables companies to improve their performance and profits.
One of the key takeaways that was reiterated by Dr. Beaulieu, is that the United States economy is in a recession about one-third of the time. While economic growth in the U.S. has slowed down, that does not necessarily mean that we are in a recession. Many companies are cautious to make big decisions, which Dr. Beaulieu referred to as a recession ‘hangover’. He predicts that the next actual recession will be in 2019, which will only last about one year.
Overall, the U.S. and global recoveries appear to be moving in a positive direction. Below are some indicators that Dr. Beaulieu cited during his speech:
- Consumers are in great shape.
- The world is relatively calm.
- S. employment is rising.
- Banks are lending.
- Retail sales are rising.
- Non-residential construction is improving.
- Deficit spending continues – but no fear of austerity.
Dr. Beaulieu provided the following phase management objectives in preparing for 2016:
- Find out where you are in the business cycle – recovery, accelerating growth, slower growth, or recession.
- Implement growth strategies.
- Spend money on marketing – Chief Marketing Officer (CMO).
- Spend money on people and process, and then… spend some more!
- Plan for higher wages.
- Plan on higher energy costs in 2016.
Dr. Beaulieu warned that the US is on track to another ‘Great Depression’ by the year 2030. This ‘Great Depression’ will last about 10 years. By 2035, 25% of the US budget will be spent on interest costs and 50% of the spending will be spent on health care costs. He suggests that manufacturing companies spend money now on automating processes to prepare for the next Great Depression.
Barnes Dennig is committed to helping provide resources to local manufacturers which will help them continue to grow in a tumultuous economy. To request a copy of the audio from Dr. Beaulieu’s presentation, click here. 2015 Manufacturing Compensation & Benefits Benchmarking Study, or to request an audio recording of the panel, let us know here.